According to an often-cited but unofficial rule of thumb, how many consecutive quarters of declining real GDP indicate a recession?

Two

While the National Bureau of Economic Research officially defines a recession using several factors, the "two-quarter rule" remains a popular shorthand for identifying economic downturns. This rule of thumb was popularized in 1974 by economist Julius Shiskin to provide a simple, measurable metric for the public. By requiring six months of negative growth, this benchmark helps distinguish a temporary dip from a sustained period of economic contraction.